Analysis of the historical relationship between current Navy RDT&E and future investment in procurement

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Author
Long, Edward Charles III
Date
1978-12Advisor
Fremgen, J.M.
Larson, Harold J.
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Show full item recordAbstract
In partial response to a memorandum for the Superintendent,
Naval Postgraduate School, from the Director of
the Fiscal Management Division, Office of the Chief of
Naval Operations (Serial 922E21/587526 dated 24 April 1978) ,
this thesis attempts to analyze the historical relationship
between the Navy's investment in current RDT&E and future
investment in procurement. Utilizing data from fiscal
years 1962 through 1979 and single equation econometric
forecasting techniques, linear models predicting procurement
one to four years in advance based on current RDT&E are
developed. From time-series data, with the models adjusted
for serial correlation of the error terms , ex post forecasts
and confidence interval estimations are used to evaluate
the extent and usefulness of the predictive relationships
discovered
.
Eight separate models are developed, and analysis of
results indicates the existence of a predictive relationship.
However, there are also indications that the basic
relationship may have changed during the period under study.
The relative inaccuracy of forecasting methods when earlier
data are ignored makes the usefulness of these procedures
to those who shape future Navy budgets difficult to
determine.
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This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.Collections
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