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dc.contributor.advisorFremgen, J.M.
dc.contributor.advisorLarson, Harold J.
dc.contributor.authorLong, Edward Charles III
dc.dateDecember 1978
dc.date.accessioned2013-02-15T23:29:52Z
dc.date.available2013-02-15T23:29:52Z
dc.date.issued1978-12
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10945/27961
dc.description.abstractIn partial response to a memorandum for the Superintendent, Naval Postgraduate School, from the Director of the Fiscal Management Division, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations (Serial 922E21/587526 dated 24 April 1978) , this thesis attempts to analyze the historical relationship between the Navy's investment in current RDT&E and future investment in procurement. Utilizing data from fiscal years 1962 through 1979 and single equation econometric forecasting techniques, linear models predicting procurement one to four years in advance based on current RDT&E are developed. From time-series data, with the models adjusted for serial correlation of the error terms , ex post forecasts and confidence interval estimations are used to evaluate the extent and usefulness of the predictive relationships discovered . Eight separate models are developed, and analysis of results indicates the existence of a predictive relationship. However, there are also indications that the basic relationship may have changed during the period under study. The relative inaccuracy of forecasting methods when earlier data are ignored makes the usefulness of these procedures to those who shape future Navy budgets difficult to determine.
dc.description.urihttp://archive.org/details/analysisofhistor1094527961
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherMonterey, California: U.S. Naval Postgraduate Schoolen_US
dc.rightsThis publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.
dc.subject.lcshManagementen_US
dc.titleAnalysis of the historical relationship between current Navy RDT&E and future investment in procurementen_US
dc.typeThesisen_US
dc.contributor.corporateNaval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
dc.contributor.departmentAdministrative Sciences
dc.subject.authoreconometric forecasting
dc.subject.authorforecasting Navy procurement
dc.subject.authorRDT&E
dc.subject.authorN
dc.subject.authorNavy research and development
dc.description.serviceLieutenant Commander, United States Navy
etd.thesisdegree.nameM.S. in Managementen_US
etd.thesisdegree.levelMastersen_US
etd.thesisdegree.disciplineManagementen_US
etd.thesisdegree.grantorNaval Postgraduate Schoolen_US
dc.description.distributionstatementApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited.


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