A comparison and validation of two surface ship readiness models

Download
Author
Pennypacker, Blaine S.
Date
1994-09Advisor
Sohn, So Young
Second Reader
Becker, Kevin
Metadata
Show full item recordAbstract
Two models are used by the U.S. Navy to predict surface ship readiness: the Surface Ship Resources to Material Readiness Model (SRM) and the Surface Ship Inventory to Material Readiness Model (SIM). This thesis examines both models, in order to validate the model fit and to determine whether the two models predict significantly different levels of readiness for a given data set using both cross validation and jackknife procedures. Examination of the models reveals that there are numerous insignificant predictor variables in the models. Normality assumptions made on the non-linear regression are not proper. Additionally, the performance of both the SRM and the SIM at the ship level is poor. However, once aggregated to the fleet level, prediction performance improves drastically. Analysis of the jackknife confidence intervals indicate that the SRM and SIM predict significantly different levels of readiness. While the SIM performs slightly better than the SRM, one has to consider the marginal cost associated with the more complex SIM for model selection. Finally, use of reduced models and model modifications such as use of Poisson regression are recommended
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
-
Analysis of surface ships engineering readiness and training
Landreth, Brant T. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2004-03);This thesis analyzes engineering readiness and training onboard United States Navy surface ships. On the west coast, the major contributor to training is the Afloat Training Group, Pacific (ATGPAC). The primary objective ... -
Analysis of Surface Warfare Enterprise's implementation of enterprise management practices
Castle, Brandon S.; Massie, James G. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2010-12);The Navy's future success relies on its ability to improve its current level of readiness in an environment of limited budgets. The enterprise concept has been the Navy's tool to meet this fiscal challenge. Through better ... -
The SHARP evolution: development of the Sierra Hotel Aviation reporting program from the deck plates
Williamson, Christopher Loyal (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2000-09);Due to constant changes in the military environment, operations tempo, resource limitations, and leadership directives, the fashion in which the military computes its training and readiness is constantly in flux. Previous ...