Estimating mesoscale, orographically enhanced precipitation using synoptic scale data.
Angove, Michael D.
Nuss, Wendell A.
Pauley, Patricia M.
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A method for resolving the mesoscale distribution of precipitation over mountainous regions is developed using synoptic-scale analyses and topography with a 40 km resolution. The method consists of calculating the saturated moisture flux at a level assumed to be the cloud base and correlating this quantity with observed precipitation. General correlation coefficients ranged from-0.2 under conditions poorly represented by the synoptic surface analysis to -0.55 when theses analyses are more representative of actual forcing. When applied regionally, correlation improved dramatically, suggesting potential incorporation into precipitation forecasts over mountainous areas. Over wider regions of less defined topography, correlation is weaker but is still an improvement over the current synoptic-scale precipitation forecast products.
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