Sensitivity analysis of the modern naval combat model
Lalis, Aristomenis P.
Weir, Maurice D.
Hughes, Wayne P., Jr.
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This thesis describes, extends and explores the validity of Hatzopoulos Naval Combat Model of modern surface warship missile engagements. An extensive sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine how the model's output is affected by changes in force alertness and scouting effectiveness. The approach taken is to analyze the sensitivity of combat (missile exchange) results first through the use of ratios, and second by examining partial derivatives. Two ratios are developed. The first is a ratio of remaining staying power after the exchange of salvos. The second is a fractional exchange ratio, which compares the fraction of combat power remaining on the two sides after an exchange. The robustness of the fractional exchange ratio as an indicator of success in naval salvo warfare was demonstrated.
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