U.S. Coast Guard fleet mix planning: a decision support system prototype
Cortez, Louis A.
Kaiser, Thomas J.
Bhargava, Hemant K.
Bradley, Gordon H.
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The objective of this thesis is to analyze the fleet mix planning problem, develop an approach to evaluate alternative fleet mixes, and implement the approach in a decision support system (DSS). In particular, this research is conducted in the context of the acquisition of a mix of patrol boats to replace the aging Point Class patrol boats within the U. S. Coast Guard. The analysis of an alternative fleet mix involves, among other things, the evaluation of cost, activity and performance measures for that fleet mix. Several analytic and forecasting models are used to determine costs and activity measures for various fleet mixes, and simulation games are played to assess expected mission performance for each mix under a set of mission scenarios. A rulebased deductive model is employed to determine and score the response of a given fleet mix to events occurring during the simulation. These models are implemented and integrated in a decision support system which combines the mathematical models with a database system, an expert system, and user interface tools. It is hoped that repeated use of the system, analysis of the alternative fleet mixes using a large number of data sets, and post-evaluation analysis and explanations, will help provide the decision-maker insight in to the problem, and will facilitate a judicious decision.
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