Determining personnel accession requirements for Medical Service Corps Health Care Administrators using a steady-state analysis

Abstract

A Markov model was used to determine the optimal number of Medical Service Corps Health Care Administrator officers the Navy must access each year in order to maintain a desired end-strength. The Markov model identified the flow of Ensigns through Lieutenant Commanders using sixteen-year data. Five scenarios were analyzed to determine the most qualified method in determining accession levels. Optimization was achieved by changing with distribution of accessions sources and recruiting ranks. The solver scenario provided the alternative with the least amount of underage and overage when comparing the force structure to the predicted values. A four year historical review identified that if the current business practices will not allow for rank steady states to be reached. A few significant characteristics were determined to influence retention at seven and ten year periods. The characteristic of primary concern, commissioning source, was determined to be significant. A survival analysis identified that the In-Service Procurement Program has a different survival function than other sources. Increased variations between the current force structure plan and the predicted Markov model outcomes suggest that greater efficiency could be obtained in future years. This Markov model can be used as a tool for accessioning to improving extended forecasts.