Brazil, the United States, and the missile technology control regime

Abstract

This technical report analyzes Brazil's development of ballistic missiles in light of U.S. pressures to stifle that development. The first section describes and critiques the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR); the second analyzes the U.S. application of MTCR guidelines toward Brazil; the third assesses Brazil's ballistic missile capabilities; and the fourth considers Brazil's response. The report concludes that the U.S. policy of restricting space and missile technology to Brazil under the MTCR has succeeded in stalling Brazil's missile program, but has also (1) further strained Brazilian security relations with the United States; (2) weakened U.S. influence over Brazil's rocket and missile programs; (3) strengthened Brazilian ties with European suppliers (especially France) of space and missile technology; (4) driven Brazil into closer technological cooperation with the People's Republic of China and the Soviet Union; and (5) intensified Brazilian negotiations with Iraq and Libya. As Brazil moves away from the United States (its traditional supplier of space and missile technology), it is becoming relatively more autonomous and less vulnerable to U.S. restrictions on space and missile technology. The successful implementation of an internationalist development strategy by Brazil's new president, Fernando Collor de Mello, could provide the United States with an exceptional opportunity to improve relations with Brazil. The United States could possibly negotiate the easing of MTCR restrictions on space technology to Brazil without jeopardizing the goal of ballistic missile non- proliferation. Military publications; Periodicals; Reports. (eg)