Evaluation of NOGAPS 2.1 systematic error - winter 1983/84
Boyle, James S.
Wash, Carlyle H.
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This report presents an evaluation of the systematic error of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS 2.1) for the winter of 1983/84. The systematic error is just the man of the forecast error. The error is the difference between the NOGAPS forecast and the NOGAPS analysis at verification time. The fields examined are the 9235, 500 and 250 mb heights, the 925 and 250 mb winds, the 925-500 mb thickness and sea-level pressure. The forecasts are those started on the 0000 GMT watch for 120 h and are evaluated at intervals of 24 hours. The error and analysis fields are also fourier decomposed along latitude circles to ascertain the scale structure of the errors. In addition, anomaly correlations and root mean square error are computed over various latitude bands to provide an overview of the model performance. Keywords: Numerical weather forecasts; Error analysis
NPS Report NumberNPS-63-85-002
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