Statistical post-processing of the navy nested tropical cyclone model and the operational tropical cyclone model : final report for period October 1980-September 1981
Abstract
A statistical technique proposed by Elsberry and Frill (1980) for adjusting
dynamical tropical cyclone motion forecasts is extended to the Two-Way Interactive
Nested Tropical Cyclone Model (NTCM) and the operational Che-Way Interactive
Tropical Cyclone Model (TCMO) . The technique utilizes linear regression equations
to reduce systematic errors. Backward extrapolation positions are presented
as a less expensive, but inferior, alternative to the backward integration positions
required by the original technique. A scheme is developed for applying the
technique in storm-motion coordinates as well as zonal-meridional coordinates.
Tests with 186 NTCM cases indicate moderate improvement in forecast errors by the
zonal-meridional regression technique, and slight improvement by the storm-coordinate
scheme. In TCMO tests with 212 cases, the zonal-meridional regression
equations reduced the forecast errors, but the storm-coordinate equations did
not. The technique failed to improve forecast errors in independent tests with
NTCM 1981 data, presumably due to differences in error biases, which indicates a
need for a larger sample size. Alternatively backward integration positions may
be necessary to achieve consistent improvements from this statistical technique.
The technique was able to improve 60h-72h forecast errors in TCMC 1981 cases.
NPS Report Number
NPS-63-81-003Related items
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