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dc.contributor.authorPeak, James E.
dc.contributor.authorElsberry, Russell L.
dc.date1981-09
dc.date.accessioned2013-02-27T23:29:02Z
dc.date.available2013-02-27T23:29:02Z
dc.date.issued1981-09
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10945/29112
dc.description.abstractA statistical technique proposed by Elsberry and Frill (1980) for adjusting dynamical tropical cyclone motion forecasts is extended to the Two-Way Interactive Nested Tropical Cyclone Model (NTCM) and the operational Che-Way Interactive Tropical Cyclone Model (TCMO) . The technique utilizes linear regression equations to reduce systematic errors. Backward extrapolation positions are presented as a less expensive, but inferior, alternative to the backward integration positions required by the original technique. A scheme is developed for applying the technique in storm-motion coordinates as well as zonal-meridional coordinates. Tests with 186 NTCM cases indicate moderate improvement in forecast errors by the zonal-meridional regression technique, and slight improvement by the storm-coordinate scheme. In TCMO tests with 212 cases, the zonal-meridional regression equations reduced the forecast errors, but the storm-coordinate equations did not. The technique failed to improve forecast errors in independent tests with NTCM 1981 data, presumably due to differences in error biases, which indicates a need for a larger sample size. Alternatively backward integration positions may be necessary to achieve consistent improvements from this statistical technique. The technique was able to improve 60h-72h forecast errors in TCMC 1981 cases.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipPrepared for: Naval Environmental Prediction Research Facility, Monterey, California 93940.en_US
dc.description.urihttp://archive.org/details/statisticalpostp00peak
dc.format.extent51 p. : ill. ; 28 cm.en_US
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherMonterey, California. Naval Postgraduate Schoolen_US
dc.subject.lcshNUMERICAL WEATHER FORECASTING--DATA PROCESSING.en_US
dc.titleStatistical post-processing of the navy nested tropical cyclone model and the operational tropical cyclone model : final report for period October 1980-September 1981en_US
dc.typeTechnical Reporten_US
dc.contributor.corporateNaval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
dc.contributor.departmentMeteorology
dc.subject.authorTropical meteorology, Typhoon track forecasting, Statistical-dynamic track forecasts, Nested tropical cyclone modelen_US
dc.identifier.oclcocm78471448
dc.identifier.npsreportNPS-63-81-003
dc.description.distributionstatementApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited.


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