A strategic planning framework for predicting and evaluating Soviet interests in arms control

Abstract

v. 1. This report distinguishes between Soviet interest in (1) making arms control proposals; (2) negotiating arms control agreements; (3) signing arms control treaties; and (4) actually complying with agreements once signed. It suggests that four sets of factors condition Soviet arms control interests at each of these levels: (1) Soviet threat perceptions; (2) Soviet bargaining leverage; (3) Soviet leadership stability; and (4) Soviet foreign policy orientation. Specific reference is made to strategic nuclear arms control issues. Four conditions are identified as prerequisites for Soviet interest in reaching agreement on strategic arms reductions, thus providing a basis for policy forecasting. -- v. 2. This report takes the framework developed in Volume I regarding levels of Soviet interest in arms control, the four factors conditioning that level of interest, and applies them to a specific case study: the Strategic Arms Reduction Talks (START) between 1982 and 1983. It concludes that none of the four variables necessary for Soviet interest in signing an agreement were present, and therefore provides a conceptual understanding for Soviet policy toward strategic arms control in the era immediately preceding the emergence of SDI and strategic defenses as a major factor in Soviet calculations. (sdw)