An analytical model for forecasting Navy Officer career paths
Milch, Paul R.
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A mathematical model, using semi Markov Processes, is suggested for the career paths of military officers. The model consists of a rectangular array of nodes with rows representing activity types and columns representing successive tours. Thus each billet of an officer is described by an activity type and a tour number. The duration of such a billet, called a tourlength, is considered fixed, given the activity type and the tour number. Transitions from activities in one tour to activities in the next tour are governed by distinct transition probability matrices. A formula is developed for the expected number of personnel occupying any activity in any tour sometime in the future, given the current numbers of occupants (incumbents) in all billet types and the planned numbers of accessions in the future. Finally, an example is presented that is applicable to the Surface Warfare Officer Community of the Navy. (sdw)
NPS Report NumberNPS-55-88-009
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