Convective indices for the central and western tropical Pacific
Stratton, Matthew B.
Harr, Patrick A.
Elsberry, Russell L.
MetadataShow full item record
Within the Pacific Air Forces (PACAF) area of responsibility, tropical deep convection that is not associated with tropical cyclones can cause significant impacts to operations. In this study, convective indices calculated from five sites in the central and western tropical North Pacific are examined with respect to their ability to predict the onset and intensity of deep convection. Two predictands are utilized: measures of convection derived from surface weather observations and the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) Blended Rainrate estimates, which are derived from infrared and microwave satellite observations and interpolated to the five sites. Eighteen indices derived from rawinsondes are ranked by predictive skill for specific locations and seasons. Indices that exhibit significant skill are used in a discriminant analysis to define a multivariate experimental tropical convective index, which is then evaluated for each region and season. The multivariate index was not able to discriminate between convective and non-convective environments over the central North Pacific. Although the multivariate index exhibited skill for sites in the tropical western North Pacific during summer, it did not perform better than the highest-ranked single indices. For many of the locations and seasons evaluated, the Severe Weather Threat (SWEAT) Index exhibited the most skill.
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
A multi-scale analysis of tropical cyclogenesis within the critical layer of tropical easterly waves in the Atlantic and western North Pacific sectors Lussier, Louis L. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2010-09);A newly proposed tropical cyclogenesis sequence that describes the transition of a tropical wave's critical layer to a tropical cyclone is used to examine two formation cases in the western North Pacific basin. Typhoon ...
Chang, C.-P.; Li, Tim (2000-07-15);The key questions of how the tropospheric biennial oscillation (TBO) maintains the same phase from northern summer in South Asia to southern summer in Australia, and how the reversed phase can last through three locally ...
Powell, Scott, W. ;Radar and rawinsonde data from four ground-based observing stations in the tropical Indo-Pacific warm pool were used to identify possible associations of environmental state variables and their vertical profiles with ...