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dc.contributor.authorZehna, Peter W.
dc.date1972-06
dc.date.accessioned2013-02-27T23:38:20Z
dc.date.available2013-02-27T23:38:20Z
dc.date.issued1972-06
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10945/29510
dc.description.abstractThe report contains a study devoted to a comparison of exponential smoothing with other alternatives to demand forecasting. Special attention is paid to the stock-out risks assumed whenever reorder levels are set using the various methods being compared. Models presently used by NavSup are employed in order that the results be applicable to the system in use. Simulation techniques are used for drawing comparisons. For constant mean, normal demand, it is shown that exponential smoothing does not produce as accurate results as ordinary maximum likelihood techniques. For the case of a linear mean changing with time, it is shown that the two methods are about comparable. Finally, a sequential Bayes forecasting method is defined and found to compare quite favorably with exponential smoothing. The need for additional study of Bayesian methods is established. (Author)en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipsupported by the Research and Development Division, Naval Supply Systems Commanden_US
dc.description.urihttp://archive.org/details/somealternatives00zehn
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherMonterey, California. Naval Postgraduate Schoolen_US
dc.rightsThis publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.en_US
dc.subject.lcshFLUID DYNAMICS.en_US
dc.titleSome alternatives to exponential smoothing in demand forecastingen_US
dc.typeTechnical Reporten_US
dc.contributor.corporateNaval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
dc.identifier.npsreportNPS55ZE72061A


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