Modeling the U.S. border patrol Tucson sector for the deployment and operations of border security forces

Abstract

Illegal cross-border activity is a severe homeland defense and security problem along the international Southwest border. The issue of illegal human smuggling is not new to the United States-Mexico border or to law enforcement agencies; however, the phenomenon is rising and human smugglers are adjusting to law enforcement tactics. This thesis has three objectives. First, it describes and identifies the fundamental dimensions of U.S. Border Patrol operations in the busiest, most vulnerable section of the border. Second, it integrates prominent border security factors into a mathematical predictive model -- the Arizona-Sonora Border (ASB) Model * that provides an illustration of possible border security operational strategies and the outcome apprehension probability of migrants given the implementation of various operational strategies. Last, this thesis seeks to provide a comprehensive picture of the complex dynamics along the USBP Tucson Sector. This picture highlights the primary challenges facing policymakers in developing innovative policies that will minimize illegal cross-border activity and secure the homeland.