An examination of the USMC Combat Active Replacement Factor (CARF) determination system
Lindsay, Glenn F.
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Combat Active Replacement Factors, or CARFs, are logistics planning factors currently used by the U.S. Marine Corps as estimates of equipment losses in future conflicts. Adapted Army replacement factors are currently a prime source for CARF values, but verification of these values is difficult. This report examines two alternate means of estimating CARF values for comparative purposes. The first employs mean-time-to-loss estimates for various equipment types, and several scenario-oriented models are given for mapping these values into CARFs. Professional military judgement provides another way of estimating CARF values, and a procedure is given by which the judgment of many experts can be aggregated to provide CARF information. A demonstraction of the procedure is given, employing actual data from twenty-three judges who rated 'chance of loss' for twenty-one equipment types. Keywords: Replacement factor, combat losses, scaling
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
NPS Report NumberNPS55-85-005
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