A Kalman Filter for a Poisson Series with Covariates and Laplace Approximation Integration
Gaver, Donald Paul
Jacobs, Patricia A.
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A hierarchical model for a Poisson time series is introduced. The model allows the mean or rate of the Poisson variables to vary slowly in time; it is modeled as the exponential of an AR/1 process. In addition the rate is influenced by a covariate. The Laplace method is used to recursively update some model parameter estimates. Frankly heuristic methods are explored to estimate other of the underlying parameters. The methodology is checked against simulated data with encouraging results
RightsThis publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.
NPS Report NumberNPS-OR-91-030
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