Life cycle costing of an emerging technology : the fiber optics case
Jones, Carl R.
Johnson, Ronald Lloyd
Knobloch, Earle William
McGrath, John Michael
Michna, Kenneth Ralph
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As significant technological advances in fiber optics and optical data transmission methods are being made, it is necessary to develop appropriate methods for estimating life cycle costs for alternative coaxial/twisted pair wire and optical fiber avionics. In Volume One measures of effectiveness are suggested for each alternative system. An approach, which structures the technological and demand uncertainties of fiber optics, is developed through scenarios as a means of relating cost and effectiveness. It is suggested that Delphi and experience curve techniques be used in conjunction with ordered scenarios as a technological forecasting technique for estimation of life cycle costs of fiber optics. In addition, a review of the historical and technological background of fiber optics and their application to the Naval Electronics Laboratory center (NELC) A-7 Airborne Light Optical Fiber Technology (ALOFT) Program is included. (Author)
NPS Report NumberNPS-55Js76031
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