A prison/parole system simulation model

Abstract

The continued high incidence of crime is recognized as being a serious national problem. Much controversy surrounds the estimated effects of policy changes within the Criminal Justice System. The paper presents a methodology for analyzing the effects of possible policy changes in a state's prison/parole system on future prison and parole populations. A simulation model is presented, viewing a prison/parole system as a feedback process for ciminal offenders. Transitions among the states in which an offender might be located, imprisoned, paroled, and discharged, are assumed to be in accordance with a discrete time semi-Markov process. Projected prison and parole populations for sample data and applications of the model are discussed. (Author)