A prison/parole system simulation model
Brill, Edward A.
Anderson, David Wiley
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The continued high incidence of crime is recognized as being a serious national problem. Much controversy surrounds the estimated effects of policy changes within the Criminal Justice System. The paper presents a methodology for analyzing the effects of possible policy changes in a state's prison/parole system on future prison and parole populations. A simulation model is presented, viewing a prison/parole system as a feedback process for ciminal offenders. Transitions among the states in which an offender might be located, imprisoned, paroled, and discharged, are assumed to be in accordance with a discrete time semi-Markov process. Projected prison and parole populations for sample data and applications of the model are discussed. (Author)
RightsThis publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.
NPS Report NumberNPS55ZG73031A
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