Crisis Stability in Space: The China Challenge and Implications for U.S. Security

Abstract

While America has been a space-faring nation for decades, space plays an increasingly important role in conventional military superiority, strategic nuclear posture, and civilian economies. With the proliferation of space and other technologies, China could exploit fast-growing U.S. dependence on space to weaken U.S. military and economic power. Though absolute U.S. advantages in space should continue, the margin of U.S. advantage will likely diminish with increased Chinese space capabilities and exploration. This project will build on current understandings of space deterrence and contribute research on possible crisis behaviors. Should a crisis erupt, understanding how space deterrence functions will dictate the path back to space stability. Furthermore, the analysis of factors that will influence behavior between the United States and China in a crisis or actual conflict will better inform U.S. crisis decision-making and peacetime planning.