Predicting aircraft equipment removals during initial provisioning period
Fincke, Edwin August
Richards, F. Russell
Hartman, James K.
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An investigation was made into the characteristics of program elements and removals of Weapon Replaceable Assemblies aggregated at the system level for the purpose of developing a method to predict removals during initial provisioning periods. From examination of nine avionic systems over a 28 month period a binomial model was developed using a removal rate based on aircraft-months as a program element. The model is to be used before Fleet data are generated by obtaining aircraft-month estimates from the contractor and removal rate estimates from similar operational equipments. A probability distribution reflecting the degree of certainty is selected as a prior estimate. Then, as Fleet experience is accumulated the distribution is updated using Bayesian techniques and maturity growth curves. This distribution is used to give an estimate of current removal rate and to extrapolate to future removal rates.
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