Forecasting overhaul or replacement intervals based on estimated system failure intensity
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Authors
Gannon, James M.
Subjects
NA
Advisors
Kang, Keebom
Fields, Paul J.
Date of Issue
1994-12
Date
December, 1994
Publisher
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
en_US
Abstract
System reliability can be expressed in terms of the pattern of failure events over time. Assuming a nonhomogeneous Poisson process, and Weibull intensity function for complex repairable system failures, the degree of system deterioration can be approximated. Maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) for the system Rate of Occurrence of Failure (ROCOF) function are presented. Evaluating the integral of the ROCOF over annual usage intervals yields the expected number of annual system failures. By associating a cost of failure with the expected number of failures, budget and program policy decisions can be made based on expected future maintenance costs. Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the range and the distribution of the net present value and intemal rate of return of alternative cash flows based on the distributions of the cost inputs and confidence intervals of the MLEs. (AN)
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Management
Organization
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
NA
Format
103 p.;28 cm.
Citation
Distribution Statement
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.