Systematic analysis of complex dynamic systems : the case of the USS Vincennes

Abstract

Recent studies on the Vincennes incident have centered around the impact of stress in decision making. This thesis, which is a case analysis of a historical event, offers another perspective through the use of organizational and contextual factors as a means to ascertain what happened when the USS Vincennes shot down Iran Air Flight 655. Data extracted from the unclassified investigation report by Rear Admiral William M. Fogarty and the transcripts from the Senate Hearing before the Committee on Armed Services were analyzed quantitatively, through regression and correlation analysis in conjunction with a graphical analysis and interpretation, in an effort to resolve the lack of reconciliation between system and recollected data by witnesses. A comparative analysis was also conducted between these archival sources of data and interview data from Captain Will Rogers, 111, former Commanding Officer of the Vincennes. Additionally, to identify causal factors that led to the outcome, further analysis using the Events Path Model, Dynamic Systems Model, and Cybernetic Model of Mutual Causality was conducted. The findings of the quantitative analysis portion supports Captain Rogers' argument, which included a track number issue and the existence of another aircraft.... Command and Control, C2, Cybernetics, Organizational Learning, Vincennes Incident, Complex Dynamic Systems, Negative/Positive Feedback, Systems Analysis, Garbage Can Model, Mutual Causality, Wholistic Approach to Change, Decision Making, Ambiguity.