An analysis of Naval officer accession supply: historical factors and future trends/

Abstract

This thesis identifies and analyzes labor market, economic, demographic, and geopolitical factors and trends which are believed to be important to officer accessions. A basic officer supply model is derived from an occupational choice model. The study specifies three different measures of officer supply: applications, new contracts, and accessions. Log-linear regression models using these three dependent variables are then estimated with ordinary least squares techniques. A basic hypothesis was that applications would be a more accurate measure of actual manpower supply, since new contracts and accessions are demand-constrained. The empirical results, however, rejected this hypothesis. Nonetheless, the results indicate that officer supply is affected by some economic variables, in particular civilian wages. In a second step, the basic officer supply models are estimated for specific officer programs such as nuclear officers, nurses, medical officers, and the entire medical corps. The estimated regression equations for the separate programs were not sufficiently robust to allow accurate forecasting. Possible causes for the inadequate results are discussed.