Recognizing Patterns of Anomie that Set the Conditions for Insurgency
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Authors
Blais, Curtis
Guttieri, Karen
Jackson, Leroy A.
Shearer, Rob
Eggenberger-Argote, Niklaus
Fischer, Michele
Pearman, Jerry
Subjects
Advisors
Date of Issue
2010-04-13
Date
13-14 April 2010
Publisher
Language
en_US
Abstract
New challenges to analysis, modeling and simulation have arisen in recent years as decision-makers
and policy makers seek a better understanding of human social culture behavior. The Office of Naval Research has
tasked a team of researchers to investigate the specific question of the relationship between the well-established
theory of anomie and the emergence of insurgency. This project proposes to identify patterns of anomie that set the
conditions for insurgency, categorize the events that trigger the start of an insurgency, and simulate the path of a
nation state from peace into political violence using wargaming and modeling. Anomie — the loss of compelling
norms that enable populations to meaningfully interpret social change — threatens nation states with instabilityinduced
conflict. Nation-states that experience anomie-induced conflict are similar in that they share common factors
that make them susceptible to insurgency. We will utilize pattern classification algorithms to identify associations of
conditions to outbreaks of insurgency. The presence of anomie alone does not lead to insurgency, but helps establish
conditions upon which pivotal events trigger the political violence. Micro-level analysis will complement macrostructural
concept and data analysis. The research will develop case studies for nation-states that have suffered
insurgency to understand the types of triggers that were involved. Understanding the roots of anomie that set the
conditions for insurgency and the triggers that initiate the violence will enable creation of wargames and models to
examine the onset of an insurgency and develop mitigation strategies. These allow vicarious learning for decision
makers to experience the onset of an insurgency before the first shot is fired, providing time and understanding to
potentially prevent or mitigate the outbreak of the violence in real-world regions of interest. The project’s multi-level
approach offers a needed methodological step forward, and its outputs include new empirical grist for fellow scholars
and field practitioners. This paper provides an overview of the project and proposed methodology, as well as progress to date and planned
go-forward efforts. Moreover, the paper will serve as a representative example of exploration into social theories,
real-world data collection, and various modeling approaches to stimulate SISO community consideration of the need
for model and data standards in the area of human social culture behavior (HSCB) modeling.
Type
Working Paper
Description
Documents include Paper and Presentation.
Simulation Interoperability Standards Organization (SISO) SIW Conference Paper
Simulation Interoperability Standards Organization (SISO) SIW Conference Paper
Series/Report No
10S-SIW-005;
Department
Modeling, Virtual Environments, and Simulation Institute (MOVES)
Organization
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
SISO 2010 Spring SIW
Funder
Format
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.