A multivariate analysis of the effects of academic performance and graduate education on the promotion of senior U.S. Navy Officers

Abstract

This thesis develops multivariate models to estimate the effects of undergraduate academic performance and fully-funded graduate education on promotion to the ranks of Commander (0-5) and Captain (0-6) in the U. S. Navy. Using data extracted from the Officer Promotion History Files, two sample populations were selected for analysis: officers who appeared before the Commander promotion boards between fiscal years 1981 and 1994, and those who appeared before the Captain promotion boards during this same period. These data sets were further categorized into five warfare communities and two separate time periods; the period between 1981-1989 (the pre-drawdown), and the period between 1990-1994 (the drawdown). Ordinary least squares (OLS) and maximum likelihood log it regression models were employed to estimate the probability of being promoted to these two ranks. The findings reveal that graduate education and academic performance have positive effects on promotion probability for some, but not all, of the communities over the various time periods. Recommendations for further study are included.