The impact of the force drawdown on the promotion of minority officers in the US military

Abstract

Department of Defense (DoD) policies have historically supported specific objectives with regard to minorities in all phases of the manpower system, including accession, retention, and promotion. Drawdown policies, however, have been designed primarily to meet endstrength goals, without regard to any potential effects on specific groups. The purpose of this research is to analyze the effects of the drawdown on the promotion of minority officers. The research utilizes data covering all services provided by the Defense Manpower Data Center. Ordinary least squares and logit modeling techniques are employed to estimate the promotion performance of officers prior to, and during, the drawdown. The results show that, across DoD, minority status is no longer a factor in promotion outcomes; and the promotion of minority officers, in general, has not been adversely affected during the drawdown. However, there has been a significant decline in the probability of promotion for blacks and Hispanics in the Navy. Further research is recommended to refine the promotion models and monitor minority group promotion opportunities as the drawdown continues.