A comparative analysis of promotion probabilities for Marine Corps field grade officers with special attention given to graduates of the Naval Postgraduate School

Abstract

This thesis analyzes the relationship between selection to the Marine Corps' Field grade ranks of major and lieutenant colonel and certain personal and professional characteristics. Special attention is given to officers who graduated from the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California. A performance index, computed from each officer's Master Brief Sheet, is included in the models to control for differences in performance. Cross-tabulations and multivariate logistic and ordinary-least-squares regression models are used to analyze characteristics associated with selection probabilities. The results of the analysis indicate that being augmented into the regular Marine Corps, being in the pilot, combat and service support occupational specialties, and accession through the U.S. Naval Academy increase the likelihood of selection to major. For selection to lieutenant colonel, being caucasian, being in occupational specialties other than combat and being accessed through the U.S. Naval Academy or the NROTC increase selection probabilities. For both grades, above average performance, personal decorations and graduating from the Naval Postgraduate School increased the likelihood of selection.