Estimating mean reliability growth
Zehna, Peter W.
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A model is defined wherein corrective action may be accounted for in improving the estimation of reliability over the usual nominal success ratio. Probabilities for correcting any one of K failure modes which may arise are assumed known within the structure of a multinomial sampling procedure. Mean reliability is defined as a function of the unknown probabilities attached to the failure modes, the problem being to estimate this mean. Other measures of current reliability are defined. Three different estimators of mean reliability are defined and analyzed from the point of view of unbiasedness. Explicit expressions for the bias are derived and compared numerically for a wide variety of choices for the unknown parameters. Several problem areas for further research are identified and partial formulations of some of these are discussed.
NPS Report NumberNaval Postgraduate School (U.S.) Technical report/Research paper ; no. 60.
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