Some remarks on exponential smoothing
Zehna, Peter W.
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A critical analysis of the technique of exponential smoothing as a demand forecasting tool in inventory theory. Certain standard formulas which have been developed for this technique are shown to be only asymptotically valid and therefore suspect when the number of demand periods is small. Alternate formulas, valid for any number of time periods, are derived for one special case that is commonly treated. Certain statistical weaknesses of this forecasting technique are then analyzed and, in particular, the use of mean absolute deviation to estimate variability is criticized.
NPS Report NumberTechnical Report / Research Paper No. 72
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