Preventing ballistic missile proliferation: lessons from Iraq

Abstract

The proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missiles is now one of the greatest threats to the United States and its allies. Efforts to contain WMD proliferation, particularly the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), have had limited success and must be improved to deal with new arms proliferation challenges. This thesis examines the case of Iraq to assess the performance of the missile nonproliferation regime since 1970. By analyzing the methods used by Iraq to obtain missile systems and missile technology, this thesis assesses the ability of the international community to prevent ballistic missile proliferation. Understanding Iraq's past capabilities as well as its post-war efforts to rebuild weapons programs and procurement networks, this thesis provides suggestions for improving the regime's performance. This thesis finds that (1) prior to 1992 the MTCR failed in its attempts to prevent proliferation; (2) the existence of the MTCR, while necessary to slow proliferation, is not sufficient to prevent proliferation; and (3) additional enforcement is needed to counter WMD acquisition by resourceful and determined states.