NATO expansion and the Baltic states

Abstract

The thesis examines the prospects for the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania) in the NATO expansion process. To provide historical perspective, previous NATO expansions and recent official NATO policies towards expansion are reviewed. Actions and deliberations in the Baltic states regarding NATO expansion are examined to set the stage for the most critical elements of the analysis, the American and Russian positions. The decisive influence of American leadership within NATO is assessed, and views on NATO expansion within the American body politic and the elected leadership are surveyed. The role of Russian opposition to NATO expansion, and more importantly, the sources of this opposition within the Russian political elites are examined, with particular attention to the formal decision-making structure and internal political dynamics. Finally, the thesis assesses the probable effect of alternative forms of NATO expansion on European security and stability.