Publication:
A Markov model for parametric sensitivity analysis of Crusader effectiveness

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Authors
Duke, John R.
Subjects
Advisors
Gaver, Donald P.
Jacobs, Patricia A.
Date of Issue
1996-06
Date
June, 1996
Publisher
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
en_US
Abstract
This thesis presents a Markov model for analyzing the sensitivity of Crusader effectiveness to parametric changes in Crusader capabilities. Crusader activities are represented as finite-state, discrete-time Markov chains. A series of supporting models for some of the Markov model parameters provide for the desired sensitivity analysis on specified engineering characteristics of a Crusader. A Microsoft Excel V7.0 spreadsheet serves as the user interface, computational tool for the models. A Microsoft Visual Basic program manipulates the transition probability matrices then returns the results of the Markov model. Available measures of effectiveness include the time until Crusaders are killed by enemy counterfire and the number of fire missions executed and lost by Crusaders. A demonstration of the spreadsheet implementation shows the models can be used for the desired sensitivity analysis. While creating a model for Crusader was the motivation.
Type
Thesis
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Format
74 p.
Citation
Distribution Statement
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.
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