A Markov model for parametric sensitivity analysis of Crusader effectiveness

Abstract

This thesis presents a Markov model for analyzing the sensitivity of Crusader effectiveness to parametric changes in Crusader capabilities. Crusader activities are represented as finite-state, discrete-time Markov chains. A series of supporting models for some of the Markov model parameters provide for the desired sensitivity analysis on specified engineering characteristics of a Crusader. A Microsoft Excel V7.0 spreadsheet serves as the user interface, computational tool for the models. A Microsoft Visual Basic program manipulates the transition probability matrices then returns the results of the Markov model. Available measures of effectiveness include the time until Crusaders are killed by enemy counterfire and the number of fire missions executed and lost by Crusaders. A demonstration of the spreadsheet implementation shows the models can be used for the desired sensitivity analysis. While creating a model for Crusader was the motivation.