A stochastic simulation of a United States naval conflict with a land-based opponent: the impact of C*ISR

Abstract

This thesis develops a low-resolution stochastic simulation model to assess the impact of the intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance components of C4ISR, and strike capabilities on the mission success of a United States carrier battle group (CVBG). The simulation uses a stochastic approach to model a two-day conflict between a CVBG and a land-based enemy which incorporates the randomness and uncertainty inherent in warfare. The simulation is implemented as a C++ computer program to develop a tool to analytically exercise a prospective new system in order to predict its possible effect on combat operations. Experiments were run which simulated a two-day battle in which the United States CVBG sensor availability, sensor accuracy, and weapons availability were varied to study their affect on the outcome of the battle. Statistical analysis techniques are used to quantitatively measure the results of the battle as the sensor and weapon parameters change.