A Marine Corps Enlisted inventory projection model using years of service and pay grade

Abstract

Currently, the United States Marine Corps is required by Congress to maintain its end strength between one-half percent below and one percent above 174,000. The main method of meeting this requirement is through careful accessions planning by the manpower planners at Headquarters, U.S. Marine Corps (HQMC). This thesis created an enlisted inventory projection model that forecasts required accessions using years of service (YOS) and pay grade as variables, whereas the current projection model in use at HQMC has only the YOS dimension. It is expected that by adding the pay grade variable, the model can more accurately calculate attrition, demotion, and promotion rates within each combination of pay grade-YOS category. This Excel based model has been constructed using forecasting techniques where attrition, promotion, and demotion rates are based on either a straight average, one specific fiscal year, a two year weighted average, or a three year weighted average. This model is an easy-to-use tool with flexibility to perform quick calculations of several scenarios for analysis, ultimately providing efficiency and accuracy in manpower planning. The model also has the potential to enable manpower planners to do more detailed end strength analyses.