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dc.contributor.advisorJansen, Erik
dc.contributor.authorCarlson, Mark J.
dc.date.accessioned2013-05-06T18:43:17Z
dc.date.available2013-05-06T18:43:17Z
dc.date.issued1998-12
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10945/32614
dc.description.abstractThe purpose of this thesis is to explore the question of why special operation missions succeed or fail. The author argues that success or failure is directly related to the problem of planning for uncertainty. Special operations are executed in an inherently dynamic environment. This environment creates uncertainty for both planners and operators. The most successful planners account for uncertainty in the planning process before the operators ever conduct an operation. This thesis builds a model for exploring this phenomenon. The purpose of the model is to provide the reader with a conceptual tool for understanding the problems and process of planning in uncertainty (the art and the science). Specifically it defines three essential tools for planning in uncertainty - adaptive learning, shaping and hedging.en_US
dc.description.urihttp://archive.org/details/sofplanningforun1094532614
dc.format.extentx, 100 p.;28 cm.en_US
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherMonterey, California. Naval Postgraduate Schoolen_US
dc.titleSOF planning for uncertainty : creative thinking in dynamic environmentsen_US
dc.title.alternativeNAen_US
dc.typeThesisen_US
dc.contributor.secondreaderNA
dc.contributor.departmentDefense Analysis (DA)
dc.subject.authorNAen_US
dc.description.recognitionNAen_US
dc.description.serviceU.S. Army (USA) authoren_US
etd.thesisdegree.nameM.S. in Defense Analysisen_US
etd.thesisdegree.levelMastersen_US
etd.thesisdegree.disciplineDefense Analysisen_US
etd.thesisdegree.grantorNaval Postgraduate Schoolen_US
dc.description.distributionstatementApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited.


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