SOF planning for uncertainty : creative thinking in dynamic environments

Abstract

The purpose of this thesis is to explore the question of why special operation missions succeed or fail. The author argues that success or failure is directly related to the problem of planning for uncertainty. Special operations are executed in an inherently dynamic environment. This environment creates uncertainty for both planners and operators. The most successful planners account for uncertainty in the planning process before the operators ever conduct an operation. This thesis builds a model for exploring this phenomenon. The purpose of the model is to provide the reader with a conceptual tool for understanding the problems and process of planning in uncertainty (the art and the science). Specifically it defines three essential tools for planning in uncertainty - adaptive learning, shaping and hedging.