The effects of information technologies on insurgency conflict : framing future analysis

Abstract

The purpose of this thesis is to develop a framework to analyze the impacts of information technologies on future insurgency conflict. This objective is achieved by analyzing an existing communications model for internal war and identifying factors that will affect the use of information technology by either belligerent. These factors impact the ability of either the state government or insurgent organization to influence the state's population and international community in the struggle for state power. The factors identified range from the internal conductivity of a society to the type of government that exists within a state. Identified factors are then incorporated into the communications framework to act as a model to identity strengths and weaknessess within any specific campaign. This thesis also addresses the interactive nature of insurgency conflict. Depending upon the information technology capability of a government or insurgent force, in which scenarios is it more beneficial to incorporate an offensive and in which a defensive strategy, given the capabilities of an opponent? This thesis is designed to be a starting point for future analysis of how emerging information technologies impact the struggle for state power between an existing government and a rebel organization within its borders.