A statistical estimation of Navy enlistment supply models using zip code level data

Abstract

The Department of Defense has relied greatly upon active duty members assigned to recruiter positions to achieve enlistment goals. The Commander, Navy Recruiting Command (CNRC) is tasked with ensuring that Navy recruitment goals are attained in order to maintain the supply of personnel to support prescribed force size. This thesis will examine the Navy Recruiting Stations and their respective production of new contracts using zip code level data from the Standardized Territory Analysis Management (STEAM) database. The effect of individual level station attributes will be predicted using regression with new contract production as a function of recruiting station population statistics drawn from the STEAM database. A secondary purpose of this thesis is to determine if the interaction of the target recruiting population, the number of recruiters assigned to a market, and the presence of other armed forces recruiting stations in the same location have an effect on recruiting production. Both models showed that recruiter presence was the most important factor in attaining new contracts. Also, Navy contracts were positively related to other armed services recruiting production. This suggests complementarity. The county unemployment rate was positively related to Navy recruiting production, as were all race/ethnicity coefficients.