Assessing the risk of inadvertent nuclear war between India and Pakistan
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Authors
Smith, Stephen A.
Subjects
India
Pakistan
United States
Nuclear Weapons
Ballistic Missiles
Deterrence
Escalation
Pakistan
United States
Nuclear Weapons
Ballistic Missiles
Deterrence
Escalation
Advisors
Lavoy, Peter R.
Date of Issue
2002-12
Date
Publisher
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
Conventional warfare between India and Pakistan could inadvertently escalate to nuclear warfare. Asymmetries in military doctrine and capability undermine deterrence stability and could lead to the use of nuclear weapons if the two nations become engaged in a large-scale conventional conflict. Following the 1998 nuclear weapons test, the 1999 Kargil Conflict played out under the nuclear umbrella, but remained very limited. However, there is a growing gap in conventional military capabilities, and growing pressure in India to retaliate against Pakistan for its alleged support of terrorism and insurgency. India has invested heavily in force modernization, potentially changing the scope of conventional military operations and leading to Pakistan's inadvertent use of nuclear weapons. This thesis examines the possibility of inadvertent nuclear escalation between India and Pakistan. It analyzes the deterrence system that is evolving in South Asia, and describes the conditions under which the system could fail. Large-scale conventional war could threaten the survival of strategic forces, or threaten vital strategic command and control functions. Finally, Pakistan could adopt a launch-on-warning posture to guard against an Indian pre-emptive attack. This thesis concludes by recommending steps that the United States could take to ensure peace and decrease de-stabilizing factors in the region.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
National Security Affairs
Organization
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
xiv, 93 p. : ill. (some col.), col. maps ;
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.