A statistical analysis of the determinants of Naval Flight Officer Training Attrition

Abstract

The purpose of this thesis is to identify factors that lead to naval flight officer training attrition. Data was compiled on student NFO cohorts who entered between 1991and 1996. A multinomial logit model is specified with the dependent variable categorized into four outcomes: (1) attrition for performance failure of the individual, (2) attrition for medical reasons, and (3) dropping on request, and (4) passing aviation training. Independent variables utilized in the model include commissioning source, race, and undergraduate major. The statistical analysis sought to determine the effect of each of these demographic factors on the probability of attrition by reason. The results show that commissioning source has a significant effect on attrition for performance failure and dropping on request. United States Naval Academy graduates had the lowest attrition rates for these reasons, followed by ROTC then OCS graduates. Caucasian student NFOs had the lowest attrition rates among the race categories. Undergraduate major also affects attrition behavior with technical majors succeeding (earning wings) at a slightly higher rate than non-technical undergraduate majors.