An evaluation of Markov chain modeling for F/A-18 aircraft readiness
Ackart, Leigh P.
Whitaker, Lyn R.
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During its 1998 deployment the USS INDEPENDENCE (CV 62) and Carrier Air Wing Five operated under the control of Commander, Task Force 50 (CTF-5O). To balance resources and readiness, CTF-50 asked the following question: "How many days can the USS INDEPENDENCE go without "off ship" logistics support before the number of Mission Capable aircraft can be expected to fall below Chief of Naval Operations readiness goals?" This thesis develops a Markov chain model to answer this question. Explanatory variables for this model include sorties flown, cannibalization rate and frequency of "off ship" logistics support. Using data from INDEPENDENCE, this thesis analyzes aviation readiness by estimating the number of F/A-l8 aircraft capable of performing at least one of its intended missions. Both non-linear Markov models and. Generalized Linear Models are employed to estimate the effect of the operating environment on the number of mission capable aircraft available. The analysis demonstrates how the Markov approach captures the cyclic nature of aircraft operations and maintenance. Specifically, it is shown that INDEPENDENCE can expect to operate five to eight days without "off ship" logistics support before F/A-l8 MC rates fall below CNO readiness goals. Recommendations for further studies are included.
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