A littoral combat model for land-sea missile engagements
Mahon, Casey M.
Lucas, Thomas W.|Hughes, Wayne P. Jr.
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This thesis develops a Littoral Combat Model of interactions between Naval Ships at sea and Anti-Ship Cruise Missile Batteries on land. The Littoral Combat Model seeks to answer the question: Is a modern naval force capable of effectively operating in the dangerous littoral environment? The model is derived from a combination of Hughes' Salvo Model and Lanchester's Equations. Cases are developed using either direct fire or area fire weaponry by the sea based force. Land forces deliver aimed fire with missiles, which the ships defend against. A number of embellishments are utilized to provide an in-depth analysis of the interaction. Application of the model with two representative scenarios shows (1) that attacking effectively first remains an important advantage and (2) that accurate direct fire weapons used by the sea based force against the batteries ashore will often overcome Admiral Nelson's warning that "A ship's a fool to fight a fort." However, naval area fire (e.g., naval gunnery) is a key weakness in these inherently complicated littoral engagements, unless used in large volume and backed by sufficient Defensive Power in the sea based force.
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