PREDICTING DISHONORABLE DISCHARGE AMONG MILITARY RECRUITS

Abstract

This study examines a recruits potential for military success, as measured by dishonorable discharge from military service. Specifically, it estimates the statistical relationship between personal demographics and background characteristics of recruits and future dishonorable discharge. The data comes from the Defense Manpower Data Center and includes all military recruits between 2000 and 2012. The analysis involves regressing an indicator for being dishonorably discharged on the recruits age, gender, race, education level, marital status, number of dependents, prior military service, Armed Forces Qualification Test (AFQT) score, weight, height, and citizenship status at the time of signing the contract. The results of the model show that the variables female, age, number of dependents, prior military service, AFQT score, and race could be significant determinants for persons who were dishonorably discharged from the military service. Based on our research we can recommend that the military consider increasing the quota of females in the armed forces; continue looking for potential recruits with higher AFQT scores, higher educational levels, and prior military experience; reduce the number of waivers given to persons who have a greater number of dependents.