The effect of moral waivers on the success of Navy recruits

Abstract

This study examines the Navy's enlisted screening process and identifies success predictors through the analysis of moral waiver and attrition data for a two-year cohort (Calendar Years 2003 and 2004) compiled from three sources: (1) Personnel Recruiting for Immediate and Delayed Enlistments (PRIDE), (2) Military Entrance Processing Command (MEPCOM) Integrated Reporting System (MIRS), and (3) Navy Recruiting District (NRD) Nashville, Tennessee. Data comparisons were performed to measure the quality of existing waiver data. Historical success rates were then compared against moral waiver status, and logistic regression models were constructed to predict (1) the long-term success of applicants from the beginning of the Delayed Entry Program (DEP) through first term and (2) the success of sailors from the time they enter active duty. The data comparisons showed that MIRS recorded more waivers than PRIDE and that Nashville recorded more waivers than either MIRS or PRIDE. Results also showed that those with moral waivers were actually more successful at completing DEP than those who enlisted without moral waivers. However, it was shown that those who required moral waivers were not as successful in the long term and were significantly more likely to be moral-related losses from active duty than those without moral waivers. Regression analysis showed that moral waivers are negative predictors of long-term success.