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dc.contributor.advisorMurphree, Tom
dc.contributor.advisorMeyer, David
dc.contributor.authorReitz, Nicholas J.
dc.dateMar-13
dc.date.accessioned2013-05-08T20:42:35Z
dc.date.available2013-05-08T20:42:35Z
dc.date.issued2013-03
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10945/32888
dc.description.abstractWe have designed, developed, and tested a long-range forecasting system for producing forecasts of surface air temperatures and precipitation rates in the Korean Peninsula region at leads of two months for each calendar month. We tested predictors based on (1) indices of the Arctic Oscillation, El Nino/La Nina, North Atlantic Oscillation, Pacific/North American Pattern, and the West Pacific Pattern; (2) 850 hectopascal geopotential heights and sea surface temperatures in specific regions; (3) persistence; and (4) year (to represent long-term trends). Our forecasting system includes 24 multiple linear regression models, one for temperature and one for precipitation for each month. Each model uses a unique set of predictors. We tested each model by conducting 43 years of cross-validated hindcasting for our 1970-2012 study period. The hindcast results showed that, overall, the models had skill in predicting above normal, near normal, and below normal temperatures and precipitation rates for the Korean Peninsula (e.g., Heidke skill scores 0). We used our January models to successfully forecast temperatures and precipitation for January 2013. We also developed a series of forecaster worksheets to be used to produce forecasts for the Korean Peninsula.en_US
dc.publisherMonterey, California. Naval Postgraduate Schoolen_US
dc.rightsApproved for public release; distribution is unlimiteden_US
dc.titleLONG-RANGE FORECASTING OF SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE KOREAN PENINSULAen_US
dc.contributor.departmentMeteorology
dc.subject.authorKoreaen_US
dc.subject.authorPrecipitationen_US
dc.subject.authorPrecipitation Ratesen_US
dc.subject.authorTemperatureen_US
dc.subject.authorClimateen_US
dc.subject.authorClimate Variationsen_US
dc.subject.authorClimate Anomaliesen_US
dc.subject.authorClimate Predictionen_US
dc.subject.authorArctic Oscillationen_US
dc.subject.authorEl Ninoen_US
dc.subject.authorLa Ninaen_US
dc.subject.authorWest Pacific Patternen_US
dc.subject.authorPacific/North American Patternen_US
dc.subject.authorNorth Atlantic Oscillationen_US
dc.subject.authorTeleconnectionen_US
dc.subject.authorLong-Range Forecastingen_US
dc.subject.authorStatistical Forecasten_US
dc.subject.authorMeteorologyen_US
dc.description.serviceCaptain, United States Air Forceen_US
etd.thesisdegree.nameMaster Of Science In Meteorologyen_US
etd.thesisdegree.levelMastersen_US
etd.thesisdegree.disciplineMeteorologyen_US


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