The relationship between a submarine's maximum speed and its evasive capability

Abstract

The experiences of submarine warfare from WWI and WWII have generally dictated maximum speed when designing conventional submarines. Technological development of submarine and antisubmarine weapons, however, requires examination of submarine warfare and tactics. This thesis focuses on a coastal conventional submarine's ability to survive, as a function of its maximum speed, when attacked by a light antisubmarine warfare (ASW) torpedo. It also evaluates the maximum speed with which the submarine should be equipped to ensure a specified probability of survival. The measure of effectiveness (MOB) is the probability that the submarine, operating up to maximum speed and launching only one set of countermeasures, is not caught by the torpedo. The investigation builds on a discrete event simulation model. The systems simulated are a submarine, a light ASW torpedo, and a countermeasure system consisting of one decoy and four jammers. The results show that maximum speed of a submarine does effect the submarine's evasive performance between 12 and 18 knots. The simulated model reached a maximum probability of survival at 18 knots. That result should be regarded as a minimum since a real life system might require a higher maximum speed to reach its greatest probability of survival.