Integrating System Dynamics Modeling and Knowledge Value Added for Improved Analysis of Alternatives: A Proof of Concept Study

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Authors
Ford, David
Housel, Tom
Dillard, John T.
Subjects
Knowledge Valuation Analysis (KVA)
Advisors
Date of Issue
2010-04-30
Date
30-Apr-10
Publisher
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
Effective and efficient DoD acquisition programs require the analysis of a wide range of materiel alternatives. Alternative diversity, difficulties in selecting metrics and measuring performance, and other factors make the Analysis of Alternatives (AoA) difficult. The benefits of alternatives should be included in AoA, but cost estimates predominate most AoA processes. Incorporating benefits into AoA is particularly difficult because of the intangible nature of many important benefits. The current work addresses the need to improve the use of benefits in AoA by building a system dynamics model of a military operation and integrating it with the Knowledge Value Added (KVA) methodology. The synergies may be able to significantly improve the accuracy of KVA estimates in the AoA process. A notional mobile weapon system was modeled and calibrated to reflect four weaponized Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV). Modeling a hypothetical AoA for upgrading one of the UAV indicated that there were potentially significant synergies that can increase the number of alternatives that could be analyzed, establishing common units of benefit estimates for an AoA, improved reliability of an AoA, and improved justification of AoA results. These can improve alternative selection, thereby improving final materiel effectiveness, thereby improving DoD acquisition processes.
Type
Technical Report
Description
Proceedings Paper (for Acquisition Research Program)
Department
Acquisition Management
NPS Faculty
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
NPS-AM-10-059
Sponsors
Naval Postgraduate School Acquisition Research Program
Funder
Format
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.