Predicting the number of potential military recruits over the next ten years with application to recruiter placement
Britton, Donald L.
Buttrey, Samuel E.
Schiffman, David L.
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The object of this thesis was to evaluate Navy recruiter placements, as resource allocation directly affects organizational efficiency and mission success. In order to produce a model to assist decision makers, this study analyzed (1) demographic characteristics of past military applicants; (2) recruiter assignment histories; (3) station ZIP codes; and (4) predicted populations within each ZIP code. ZIP code-level analysis was performed on more than 4 million records provided by the Defense Manpower Data Center (DMDC). The records consisted of all military applicants (those who applied for military service with the intention of enlisting) and accessions (those who reported to basic training) from October 1998- September 2006. Records contained home of record ZIP code and demographic information including age, race, gender, and education. Woods and Poole population data, provided by Navy Recruiting Command (CNRC), was then merged in order to incorporate the 990 possible combinations of demographic characteristics for each ZIP code of the national population from 2000-2020. Computation of service-specific propensities (that is, expected numbers of military applicants) showed that the Navy has been successful in its attempt to effectively place recruiters in order to exploit the available target market. A series of comparison tables was developed to aid decision makers.
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