Design of experiment analysis for the Joint Dynamic Allocation of Fires and Sensors (JDAFS) simulation

Abstract

The U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC) Analysis Center's Joint Dynamic Allocation of Fires and Sensors (JDAFS) model, a low-resolution, Discrete Event Simulation Model with embedded optimization enables the analysis of many scenarios and factors to explore Joint Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) missions. JDAFS is a powerful model that combines both discrete event simulation and the optimization of a linear objective function to generate realistic, reasonable, and consistent solutions to difficult ISR scheduling problems. Given a scenario and a mix of ISR platforms, JDAFS optimizes a flight schedule and executes the missions. This research develops a Joint ISR scenario, explores scenario simulation results, and provides a proof-of-principle analysis that aids in the ISR decision making process. This study examines 274 design points in each of two scenarios, a non-penetrating scenario that allows only standoff collection and a penetrating scenario that allows country of interest overflight. The use of an efficient design of experiment methodology enables the exploration of the interior and exterior of the response surface for the two experimental scenarios. Analysis of the simulation output suggests that the optimization interval significantly impacts total coverage. In the nonpenetrating scenario, shorter optimization intervals ensure better coverage; however, in the penetrating scenario, longer optimization intervals provide for improved coverage. The disparity is explained by reduced likelihood of assignment saturation in the penetrating scenario due to the increased number of mission areas. Sensor range, sensor package configuration, and platform dwell time also affect the level of coverage. This is clearly demonstrated by the superior coverage provided by the most capable ISR platforms.